The landscape of digital discovery is undergoing a seismic shift as generative artificial intelligence begins to supplement, and in some cases replace, traditional search engine queries. A comprehensive new study conducted by Semrush, in collaboration with growth advisor Kevin Indig, has revealed that the "land grab" for brand authority within ChatGPT is still in its infancy. According to the analysis, only 15.2% of ChatGPT topic categories currently have a clear brand owner across related buyer questions. This leaves nearly 85% of market categories effectively "unowned," representing a massive opportunity for brands to establish early dominance in the burgeoning field of AI-driven search.
The study, which utilized the Semrush AI Visibility Toolkit, analyzed 1,094 U.S.-based categories within ChatGPT from January through June. The findings suggest that appearing in a single AI prompt does not guarantee a brand’s presence across a broader topic. In fact, the research highlighted a significant lack of consistency: brands that appeared in one response often failed to appear when ChatGPT was asked related questions within the same category. This fragmentation indicates that ChatGPT’s internal associations between brands and specific product categories are still evolving, providing a window for marketers to influence how these models perceive market leadership.
Defining Brand Ownership in the Age of LLMs
To quantify what it means to "own" a topic in an AI environment, Semrush established a rigorous set of criteria. A brand was defined as a category owner only if it held the highest share of mentions across a cluster of related prompts. Specifically, the brand had to appear in at least four out of five related prompts and maintain a lead over its closest competitor by at least five percentage points.
This methodology was designed to mirror the actual buyer journey. The study utilized five specific prompt types for each category, covering definitions, comparisons, alternatives, use cases, and final buying decisions. By testing across these diverse stages of the funnel, the researchers sought to determine if a brand was synonymous with a category or merely a fleeting reference in a specific context.
The results showed that "ownership" is currently a rare commodity. The fact that 84.8% of categories lacked a dominant leader suggests that ChatGPT’s training data and retrieval mechanisms have not yet consolidated around a "gold standard" for most industries. This is a stark contrast to traditional search engine results pages (SERPs), where established brands often maintain a stranglehold on the top organic spots for years.
The Disconnect Between Traditional SEO and AI Visibility
One of the most striking findings of the report is that traditional search engine optimization (SEO) metrics are no longer reliable predictors of success in the AI era. Metrics such as Domain Authority, backlink profiles, and keyword rankings—long the bedrock of digital marketing strategy—showed limited predictive value in determining which brands ChatGPT would prioritize.
"Traditional SEO metrics aren’t enough to explain who owns a topic," noted Kevin Indig, founder of Growth Memo and a lead analyst on the study. "While they play their role, there’s more to it."
This disconnect suggests that Large Language Models (LLMs) like ChatGPT process and weight information differently than Google’s traditional ranking algorithms. While Google focuses heavily on link equity and technical site health, ChatGPT’s responses are driven by the patterns found in its massive training datasets and the specific "weights" assigned to information during its reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) phase. Consequently, a brand with a weaker SEO profile but a stronger "narrative" presence in white papers, forums, and news archives might outperform a technically superior SEO competitor within an AI interface.
Popularity as a Barrier to Dominance
The study further categorized topics by AI search demand, splitting them into two groups. Interestingly, the research found that popular topics—those with the highest search volume—were actually harder to own. Only 11.3% of topics in the high-demand half had a clear brand owner. In contrast, 19% of topics in the lower-demand half had a dominant leader.
This inverse relationship suggests that in highly competitive, high-volume categories, ChatGPT is pulling from a much wider and more diverse array of sources, leading to a "dilution" of brand mentions. In these crowded spaces, the AI tends to provide a broader variety of options to the user rather than narrowing in on a single industry leader. For brands in niche or emerging markets, the path to AI dominance appears to be clearer and less contested.
Mentions Versus Citations: The Battle for Real Estate
A critical distinction made in the Semrush analysis was the difference between "mentions" and "citations." Many observers have focused on the links provided at the bottom of ChatGPT responses (citations) as the primary metric for AI SEO. However, the Semrush study measured ownership based on brand mentions within the actual text of the AI’s answer.
The data revealed that the most-cited sources were rarely the most-mentioned brands. A brand might be cited as a source of information, but the AI might still recommend a competitor within the prose of its response. This highlights a strategic nuance for marketers: being a "resource" for the AI is not the same as being the "recommendation" of the AI. To achieve true topic authority, brands must ensure they are mentioned as the solution to the user’s problem, not just the provider of the data used to formulate the answer.
Stability and the First-Mover Advantage
While ownership is currently difficult to achieve, the study found that once a brand manages to secure the top spot in a category, it is remarkably difficult to dislodge. Clear category owners remained in first place in 90.4% of month-over-month comparisons. This suggests that ChatGPT’s internal model of "who is the leader" is relatively stable once a certain threshold of association is met.
However, the "unsettled" categories—those where a leader has not yet emerged or where the lead is narrow—showed much higher volatility. In these categories, the top brand switched in 1,950 out of 5,470 comparisons. The stability of a brand’s position was closely tied to the margin of its lead. When a brand eventually lost its first-place ranking, it typically held a lead of only 1.3 percentage points previously. In contrast, brands that successfully defended their top position maintained an average lead of 2.9 percentage points.
This data underscores the importance of not just reaching the top, but building a significant "moat" of mentions to protect that position from month-over-month fluctuations in the AI’s generative patterns.
Methodology and Data Scope
The study represents one of the most extensive deep dives into AI visibility to date. Semrush and Kevin Indig analyzed a dataset that included more than 50,000 brands, 220,000 domains, 600,000 citations, and 220,000 URLs. The analysis spanned 1,094 U.S. categories, utilizing the Semrush AI Visibility Toolkit to track how ChatGPT responded to approximately 5,470 unique prompts over a six-month period.
The categories were selected to represent a broad cross-section of the U.S. economy, from software and financial services to consumer packaged goods and healthcare. By focusing on buyer-intent questions, the study provides a roadmap for how businesses can expect their customers to interact with AI as a shopping and research assistant in the coming years.
Broader Implications for the Marketing Industry
The implications of this study are profound for the future of digital marketing. As AI search moves from a novelty to a primary utility, the "Winner-Take-All" dynamic seen in traditional SEO appears to be evolving into a "Winner-Stays-Late" dynamic in AI.
The findings suggest that brands need to shift their focus from purely technical SEO to what industry experts are beginning to call "Generative Engine Optimization" (GEO). This involves:
- Narrative Consistency: Ensuring that the brand is consistently associated with specific keywords and categories across all digital touchpoints, from social media to press releases.
- Contextual Authority: Providing deep, high-quality content that answers the "why" and "how" of a category, making the brand an indispensable part of the AI’s training data.
- Omnichannel Presence: Since traditional SEO metrics don’t predict AI success, brands must ensure they are mentioned in the places where AI models are trained—including forums, academic papers, and news archives—rather than just focusing on their own websites.
The fact that 85% of categories are currently "unowned" is a call to action. For the first time since the early days of Google, the digital hierarchy is being rewritten. Brands that act now to establish their presence within LLMs may find themselves with a permanent advantage that traditional search engines can no longer provide. As the study concludes, AI visibility is a "topic-level game," and the players who define the topics today will likely own the markets of tomorrow.
